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Business Decision Making and Forecasting According to Probability Principles Convergences Between Historical and Empirical Research Methods

Fluturim Saliu, Hasim Deari


The object of this paper is to describe and investigate mathematical models of random phenomena, primarily from a theoretical point of view. Statistics is concerned with creating principles, methods, and criteria to treat data pertaining to such (random) phenomena or to data from experiments and other observations of the real world, by using, for example, the theories and knowledge available from the theory of probability. We can express economic and other analysis more precisely when we use mathematics. The application of mathematics has allowed economic theory to advance and provides the basis for computer models of the economy that have been developed. As we progress in economics we will find mathematics is used in various ways in textbooks and in journal articles.  

Keywords: Calculations, forecasting, probability, Bayes's method, business decisions.

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